This report summarizes the work performed in TIMEPAC Task 2.5 “TDS 5 – Large scale statistical analysis of EPC databases” of Work Package 2 “Transversal Deployment Scenarios”. This work package is concerned with the creation of future scenarios with the aim of deploying and delivering new methods to implement enhanced EPC schemas. Different partner profiles (e.g., certification bodies, software developers, and research groups) are involved in the deployment of these methods, which embrace the techno-scientific, operational, legislative, and standardisation levels. Task 2.5 focuses explicitly on exploring the potential of EPCs to conduct large-scale analyses, ultimately enhancing the energy performance of building stocks.
TDS5 objectives mainly address the EPC data analysis and exploitation in the framework of the holistic EPC enhancement of TIMEPAC. In fact, TDS5 aims (i) to check and improve the quality of the EPC data, (ii) to exploit the EPCs to carry out energy balances of the building stock by means of the definition of building archetypes, and (iii) to provide targeted stakeholders with a methodology to perform reliable refurbishment scenario analyses of their building stocks. A common methodology to achieve the objectives was developed and applied by the TIMEPAC participating countries in each own EPC database, i.e., Austria-Province of Salzburg, Croatia, Cyprus, Italy-Piemonte region, Spain-Catalonia, and Slovenia. The three TDS5 goals are interconnected and begin with data clustering and quality checking in the EPC database. The quality checking consists of assessing the reliability of the EPC data by means of a scoring method, and defining different levels of controls (i.e., data type checks, physical impossibility checks, and consistency checks). After removing inconsistent EPCs, some building archetypes, which embed the mean technology of a specific building stock, have been created by statistical analysis. These ‘virtual’ representative buildings, generated from the exploitation of the energy certificates, have been utilised as input to determine the building stock energy (in-)efficiency and to encourage the improvement of the energy status of the built environment. Finally, confidence intervals on selected EPC data have been identified and would become a helpful instrument for the certifier in the EPC generation phase.
The shared, harmonised, and flexible methodology for the creation of the archetypes has been delivered in the Guidelines that constitute an Annex within the Deliverable. Moreover, the Guidelines provide a detailed description of the building archetype schema, highlighting the key performance indicators (KPIs) representative of the energy status of the building stock, grouped in geometric data, thermo-physical properties of the building envelope, technical building system characteristics, and energy indicators.
Besides the Guidelines, a building stock energy model tool has been developed and applied by the country partners; it adopts the datasets of the representative buildings to perform large-scale energy balances and to evaluate the effectiveness of the energy refurbishment scenarios of the building stock.
In a cross-country comparison, the methodology developed in TDS5 proved to be easily applicable and upgradable, adaptable to country-specific needs and tasks to be performed. In the experience of all partners, the numerical results of TDS5 are undeniably affected by the quality and the paucity of the current EPC dataset; higher effectiveness and reliability of the outcomes will be achieved with the enhanced EPC being developed in TIMEPAC, which will constitute the future EPC databases in EU.